IEEJ Transactions on Electronics, Information and Systems
Online ISSN : 1348-8155
Print ISSN : 0385-4221
ISSN-L : 0385-4221
<Neural Network, Fuzzy and Chaos Systems>
Application of Support Vector Machine to Forex Monitoring
Joarder KamruzzamanRuhul A Sarker
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2004 Volume 124 Issue 10 Pages 1944-1951

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Abstract

Previous studies have demonstrated superior performance of artificial neural network (ANN) based forex forecasting models over traditional regression models. This paper applies support vector machines to build a forecasting model from the historical data using six simple technical indicators and presents a comparison with an ANN based model trained by scaled conjugate gradient (SCG) learning algorithm. The models are evaluated and compared on the basis of five commonly used performance metrics that measure closeness of prediction as well as correctness in directional change. Forecasting results of six different currencies against Australian dollar reveal superior performance of SVM model using simple linear kernel over ANN-SCG model in terms of all the evaluation metrics. The effect of SVM parameter selection on prediction performance is also investigated and analyzed.

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© 2004 by the Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan
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